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Aug 21 st, 2020
The inflation rate in the Middle East is now estimated to be 8.8% in 2020. With Egypt, possibly the fastest growing Arab country, growing at only 2%, most oil producing countries in the region are seeing economic contractions. The combination of Covid-19 hitting the local population and the oil decile has severely affected this region.
Arab oil exporters are forecasting oil supply cuts of about 50% in 2020 and 2021, levels that have been approved by OPEC agreements. The combination of significant cuts in production, $42 a barrel for oil, and Covid affecting local marketplaces, will have a significantly negative impact on regional economies.
Arab Countries and FGG Current News for each country is listed:
The Arab region has seen a change in the oil market coming for a long time, but almost no one saw the very short, drastic and high magnitude of this current decline. Since the region was already working on large diversification efforts, this has in many ways helped reduce the negative impact. Today, the oil sector still contributes about 27% of Arab GDP, 42% of total exports, but the big issue here is over 60% in public revenues.
Arab economies are facing a multifaceted challenge that will lower activity levels in basically all sectors. The Arab region’s GDP is expected to decline by about 4.0% this year. The impact of the crisis is expected to be stronger on oil-exporting Arab economies than any other global regions. The more diversified the Arab economies are, the better they are doing in this contraction. For example, Egypt is still expanding but well below their 6% growth last year in GDP.
Arab countries are now being forced to fully or partially open their economies. This long-term migration away from oil has significantly lessened the challenges in this overall economic recovery. If they stay wedded to oil then they will constantly have significant cyclical swings, and additional questions about their long-term viability.
We would recommend that Arab countries start reviewing next generation solutions such as focusing on helping their educated population to provide freelance global gigs, exporting their online services globally. This could even be done as a side gig.
The most rewarding economic decision would be for them to encourage their established and struggling small business to market and sell their products globally. It is shocking, but there is no out of pocket cost in leveraging the Shop the Globe platform which allows you to sell your product in every major city, country and language globally.
This same economic leverage is available on the computer service side with online gigs. These products and services that are often provided in the local markets, with only a little effort can be launched on large global platforms with zero out of pocket costs.
The world is opening up to global free trade. Selling gigs and online wholesale services are already available to Arab countries and cities– in many instances even in the local languages. Those in the Arab world who can get a presence on the global stage could quickly become very successful.
Languages and low-cost or free service in Arab countries could reduce the economic crisis there.
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